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Market Snapshot: Futures Up, Oil Drops, Investors Eye CPI and Powell’s Testimony

Futures Markets & Commodities

  • S&P/TSX futures are up ~0.5%, driven by news of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, boosting risk sentiment despite lingering geopolitical risks fxstreet.com+7reuters.com+7teletrade.org+7.

  • Oil futures have dropped sharply (~3%) and gold has softened as investors favor risk assets .

Fed & U.S. Economic Calendar Highlights

  • Fed Chair Powell testified before Congress, reaffirming that rate cuts are unlikely before substantial data confirms tariffs won’t drive persistent inflation reuters.com+11reuters.com+11axios.com+11.

  • Notably, Fed officials remain divided: two governors (Waller, Bowman) support rate cuts as soon as July, while most prefer holding rates into year‑end axios.com.

Canadian Macro Data

  • May CPI and core CPI are scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET: consensus is ~0.2–0.3% MoM for core CPI, with headline CPI up ~0.2% apnews.com+13forex.tradingcharts.com+13reuters.com+13.

  • These prints will be closely watched for signs of inflation pressure following Canada’s recent trade developments.

Other Key Economic Events (June 24, 2025)

  • 8:30 AM ET – U.S. Current Account (Q1), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (June), Case‑Shiller & FHFA Home Price Indices (April), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (June)axios.com+2scotiabank.com+2economics.bmo.com+2.

  • Throughout the day – Other U.S. data like International Transactions, SOFR rate updates, and home‐price indices are due fred.stlouisfed.org.

What to Watch

  1. Premarket reaction to CPI prints—weak data could support small‑cap bounce plays.

  2. Will oil price drop continue—watch energy‑linked small caps.

  3. Fed tone; Powell’s testimony may drive intraday volatility in futures.

  4. Geopolitical headlines, especially if ceasefire collapses—could skew risk assets.

Summary

With TSX futures up, commodities soft, and a mix of macro and Fed-driven catalysts today, markets look set for volatility. That’s ideal for nimble small‑cap trades—but keep risk tight, especially ahead of CPI.

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