Consistent with our analysis back in January, IPO activity continued its uptrend in Q1 2025, seeing 58 non-SPAC IPOs (chart below, green bars) – the most in over three years.

But a slowdown may be taking shape.

After hovering around a 3¼-year high in December, the Nasdaq IPO Pulse has faded this year, falling to a 16-month low in March (blue line).

To determine whether this recent weakness signals a downturn in IPO activity ahead, we compared it against past downturns in the IPO Pulse that signaled genuine downturns in IPO activity and those that were false alarms. This comparison mirrors the method that the National Bureau of Economic Research uses to date U.S. recessions, considering the depth, diffusion and duration of the downturn across the components.

Unfortunately, for the first few months of a downturn, genuine downturns and false alarms are essentially indistinguishable. So, through March, it’s not possible to definitively say a downturn is assured, but the deepening market sell-off in April makes it quite likely a genuine downturn will take hold as soon as Q2.

Stockholm IPO Pulse indicates cooling IPO activity likely ahead

In Stockholm, the situation is similar. Q1 IPO activity stayed in an uptrend in Stockholm, with eight IPOs (chart below, green bars) – the second-most in a quarter in nearly three years, only trailing Q4 2024’s 10 IPOs.

But, here too, the IPO Pulse is indicating that this upturn is unlikely to last.

After holding just below its summer 2024 high through January, the Nasdaq Stockholm IPO Pulse fell to a 14-month low in March (blue line).

Source : https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ipo-pulses-entering-downturns